How to reduce your risk of being caught up in a Caribbean hurricane

As Irma finally begins to blow herself out, the US and many Caribbean islands have been left reeling from her effects.  Sustained 185mph winds have been recorded during this Category 5 storm, beaten only by Hurricane Allen in 1980 which registered winds of 190mph.  On top of that, of course, are the floods which result from torrential rain and the even more dangerous storm surges caused when winds slam ocean water back onshore with terrifying force.  Even a Category 1 hurricane is not to be taken lightly, as those who live in hurricane-prone regions will testify.  For casual holidaymakers unused to such events, it’s even more frightening.  So has seeing Irma’s devastation marked the end of your Caribbean holiday plans?  Here’s why it shouldn’t and how you can avoid getting caught up in such a disaster.

Choose your island carefully

Statistically, some Caribbean islands are hit by hurricanes far more often than others.  According to data compiled by stormcaribe.com for storms between 1944 and 2010, you’re most likely to be affected if you’re in Abaco in the Bahamas, with Grand Bahama, Bimini and New Providence islands hot on its heels.  A couple of islands in the Netherlands Antilles also occur in the top ten, notably Saba and St Eustatius.  Making up the numbers are Nevis, Key West, Tortola in the BVI and the Cuban capital Havana.

Conversely, the bottom of the list features some well known names.  Barbados, Grenada, St Lucia and St Vincent are much less likely to experience a hurricane.  Such severe storms rarely if ever take a southerly track, making the likes of Trinidad and Tobago, Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire the safest bet in the region.  For the full list check out this link:

http://stormcarib.com/climatology/freq.htm

A broader picture (and more up to date, factoring in storms up to 2016) is offered by Hurricane City.  Their list factors in storms as well as hurricanes, giving a more rounded and perhaps more accurate appraisal of the risk posed for the Caribbean, Bermuda and the USA.  Joining the Bahamas to represent the Caribbean in the top ten are the Cayman Islands.  Because this list encompasses storms as well, there are a few northerly locations there too:

http://www.hurricanecity.com/rank.htm

Avoid peak hurricane season

If you really want to go to the islands that lie in the path of potential hurricanes then you’ve got to be picky about when you go.  Technically, the Atlantic hurricane season begins in June, but rarely do we see really damaging hurricanes before late August.  2005 was a bumper year for big storms – Katrina among them – and was the year when we saw the earliest Category 4 storm (Dennis on July 8th) and Category 5 storm (Emily on July 17th).  The storm season officially comes to a close at the end of November though on rare occasions they can continue until December or even January.  Yes, you guessed it, that happened in 2005 too.  They’d already run through the named hurricanes by October when Wilma hit and eventually needed to borrow six letters of the Greek alphabet.  Tropical Storm Zeta finally brought the season to a close when it dissipated on January 6th 2006.

Check the NOAA forecasts

Each year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) offers a forecast for the upcoming season.  They take in a number of factors such as ocean temperatures and, though it’s not an exact science, have a good track record in identifying busy years.  So far, 2017 is falling in line with predictions.  It kicked off with Tropical Storm Arlene in April – two months ahead of schedule – and with the likes of Harvey and Irma, is set to be another of those unforgettable seasons.  If you want to avoid being caught up in a severe hurricane, then if it’s been quiet, you’re much less likely to find yourself in trouble if you want to make a late booking.  And if the worst happens, this leaflet is packed with useful advice:

Click to access TropicalCyclones11.pdf

My thoughts are with those who found themselves in the path of recent Atlantic hurricanes.  I hope that those affected get back on their feet and that the impacted economies recover as quickly as possible.  Once they do, they’re going to need your tourist dollars, so don’t write off this beautiful region just yet.